Development of a Stochastic Infiltration Model for PPA Implementation - 19293
- Neptune and Company Inc. (United States)
Performance Assessment models often require inputs representing specific hydrologic processes and properties such as infiltration, water content, groundwater flow rate, streamflow, and sediment flux. This paper details the development of a process-level infiltration model and its use in a Probabilistic Performance Assessment (PPA) model for the West Valley Site in western New York. Additionally, this paper demonstrates a method for obtaining distributions of the long-term average hydrologic processes and properties for a PA model. For this PPA, an infiltration model was developed using HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance) to evaluate the rates of infiltration, percolation, and drainage through several site soil and proposed decommissioning cover systems, as well as the volumetric water contents of each of the unsaturated layers in a modeled soil column. A particular challenge of probabilistic modeling over long periods of time is scaling parameters appropriately so that outcomes are not grossly over- or underestimated. For these models, distributions of climatic parameters such as average precipitation rate, temperature, wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation were scaled to 1000-year averages and were used to force steady-state models that predict 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents. For the HELP model, distributions were developed for the physical and hydrologic properties of each material in a given soil column or cover system, and these properties were allowed to vary stochastically along with climatic inputs. The HELP model was run 5000 times for each of seven different soil and cover systems representing various existing and proposed conditions (i.e. native soil, backfill, existing covers, and a proposed close-in-place cover). The results of the HELP model provide ranges of 1000-year average infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents through and within the various layers of each of the different soil and cover conditions. The model outcomes also demonstrate the effectiveness of a proposed close-in-place cover, which essentially eliminates infiltration during its operational lifetime. Following model simulation, a sensitivity analysis was performed to establish the relative importance of each stochastic input with respect to each output. The outcomes of the model simulations and the sensitivity analysis were implemented into a system-level GoldSim model via a novel sensitivity-informed nearest neighbor approach. These infiltration rates, drainage rates, and water contents are used to parameterize mixing cells within the GoldSim Contaminant Transport module, which is the primary system-level model used in the PPA. The infiltration rates are also used as boundary conditions for a stochastic groundwater flow model that is also utilized in the PPA, but not discussed in this paper. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- WM Symposia, Inc., PO Box 27646, 85285-7646 Tempe, AZ (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 23003047
- Report Number(s):
- INIS-US-21-WM-19293; TRN: US21V1163043380
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: WM2019: 45. Annual Waste Management Conference, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 3-7 Mar 2019; Other Information: Country of input: France; 15 refs.; available online at: https://www.xcdsystem.com/wmsym/2019/index.html
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Infiltration Data Package for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Performance Assessment
Incorporating the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology in a Performance Assessment Model - 20403
Related Subjects
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DECOMMISSIONING
DRAINAGE
FLOW MODELS
FLOW RATE
GROUND WATER
HUMIDITY
IMPLEMENTATION
LAYERS
NEW YORK
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
SANITARY LANDFILLS
SEDIMENTS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SOILS
SOLAR RADIATION
STEADY-STATE CONDITIONS
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
WATER INFLUX