A Multiple Lines of Evidence Approach for Conceptual Site Models in Performance Assessments - 19070
- Washington River Protection Solutions, Richland, WA 99354 (United States)
- Tec-Geo, Inc., Golden, CO 80419 (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99354 (United States)
- INTERA Inc., Richland, WA 99354 (United States)
- CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company, Richland, WA 99354 (United States)
- U.S. Department of Energy, Office of River Protection Richland, WA 99354 (United States)
Demonstration of the long-term performance of remediated radioactive waste sites relies on models that evaluate vadose zone and groundwater flow and contaminant transport for thousands of years. Model qualification, verification, and comparisons with data are essential elements to demonstrating the accuracy of long-term performance assessments (PAs). However, comparisons with data are generally limited due to incomplete characterization data and long-time scales. Since PAs support decision making to assure long-term protection of both human health and the environment, a conceptual site model (CSM) is needed to explain the hydrodynamic behavior and account for subsurface heterogeneities in sufficient detail to support confident decisions. In the case of the Waste Management Area (WMA) C PA, where the focus of the effort is on characterizing flow and transport through a thick vadose zone, site-specific data are sparse and larger-scale geologic descriptions are adopted with the risk of losing small scale features that may affect contaminant transport. Features such as horizontal bedding and sloping interfaces between contrasting material types, as well as vertically oriented features such as clastic dikes, may be difficult to delineate from sparse characterization data, but may affect the extent to which contaminants are transported. The PA conducted to identify long-term impacts associated with the closure of the single-shell tank (SST) farm at WMA C adopted an equivalent homogenous medium approach to represent the major stratigraphic units at the site. This approach explicitly represents major stratigraphic units but assigns hydraulic properties that implicitly account for the presence of small-scale heterogeneities and their impact on flow and contaminant transport to the groundwater. The objective of this study is to evaluate the available site-specific and analogue data that can be used to characterize heterogeneity and to assess its impact on fate and transport of contaminants that may lead to different conclusions when compared to the results of the equivalent homogeneous media approach. To this end, a multiple lines of evidence approach was used to construct alternative CSMs based on an evaluation of several types of data. These data include 1) general characteristics and features of the major stratigraphic units from historical descriptions; 2) borehole geologic logs; 3) particle size distribution measurements; 4) moisture content measurements; 5) spectral gamma data; and 6) concentrations of key constituents (i.e., Tc-99) in both the vadose zone and groundwater impacted by past releases. Based on an analysis of the available data, lines of evidence are evaluated for consistency and integrated in a consistent manner into scientifically defensible CSMs. Numerical models are then used to evaluate the impact that the explicit representation of heterogeneities has on contaminant transport. Together, the field data and the numerical modeling results indicate that heterogeneity caused by the small-scale features do not have a significant (i.e. greater than a factor of 2) impact on transport below WMA C relative to peak concentrations and arrival times for potential releases from waste tanks. The results of this study underscore the value of using multiple lines of evidence based on the quantity and quality of available data in developing alternative CSMs and evaluating their relative impact on key transport metrics such as arrival times and peak concentration. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- WM Symposia, Inc., PO Box 27646, 85285-7646 Tempe, AZ (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 23002900
- Report Number(s):
- INIS-US-21-WM-19070; TRN: US21V1015043233
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: WM2019: 45. Annual Waste Management Conference, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 3-7 Mar 2019; Other Information: Country of input: France; 13 refs.; available online at: https://www.xcdsystem.com/wmsym/2019/index.html
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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