Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Waite, Taryn; Pradhan, Bijay Bahadur; Winyuchakrit, Pornphimol; Khan, Zarrar; Weber, Maridee; Pressburger, Leeya; Chaichaloempreecha, Achiraya; Rajbhandari, Salony; Pita, Piti; Westphal, Michael I.; Jonvisait, Abdullah; Jareemit, Daranee; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Evans, Meredydd

doi:10.3389/fenrg.2024.1335290

Stakeholder-driven carbon neutral pathways for Thailand and Bangkok: integrated assessment modeling to inform multilevel climate governance

Journal Article · Fri Feb 09 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Frontiers in Energy Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2024.1335290· OSTI ID:2299512

Waite, Taryn ^[1]; Pradhan, Bijay Bahadur ^[2]; Winyuchakrit, Pornphimol ^[2]; Khan, Zarrar ^[1]; Weber, Maridee ^[1]; ^[1]; Chaichaloempreecha, Achiraya ^[2]; Rajbhandari, Salony ^[2]; Pita, Piti ^[2]; Westphal, Michael I. ^[3]; Jonvisait, Abdullah ^[2]; Jareemit, Daranee ^[2]; Limmeechokchai, Bundit ^[2]; Evans, Meredydd ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Thammasat University, Klong Nueng (Thailand)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

Thailand has established a target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Reaching this goal will require coordination and collaboration between stakeholders spanning sectors and scales, including energy system decision makers, land managers, and city planners. Robust decarbonization scenarios incorporating current plans and targets, additional measures needed, and trade-offs between strategies can help stakeholders make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. Through iterative engagement with decision makers at the city and national levels, we develop and analyze carbon neutral scenarios for Thailand that incorporate Bangkok’s role using a global integrated assessment model. We find that Thailand can reach carbon neutrality through power sector decarbonization, energy efficiency improvements, widespread electrification, and advanced technologies including carbon capture and storage and hydrogen. Negative emissions technologies will also be needed to offset Thailand and Bangkok’s hardest-to-abate CO₂ emissions. Bangkok, as a major population and economic center, contributes significantly to Thailand’s energy demand and emissions and can therefore play an important role in climate change mitigation. Accordingly, our results underscore the importance of subnational climate action in meeting Thailand’s carbon neutral goal. Our analysis also indicates that without sustained land-based carbon sequestration, much more mitigation effort will be needed in Thailand’s energy sector, including at the subnational scale, to reach carbon neutrality. These insights can help stakeholders identify priorities, consider tradeoffs, and make decisions that will impact Bangkok and Thailand’s long-term climate change mitigation potential. This analysis demonstrates how stakeholder engagement in integrated assessment modeling can facilitate and inform multilevel climate governance.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: U.S.-ASEAN Smart Cities Partnership; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2299512

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--192420

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Energy Research, Journal Name: Frontiers in Energy Research Vol. 12; ISSN 2296-598X

Publisher:: Frontiers Research FoundationCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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