Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

McManamay, Ryan A.; Vernon, Chris R.; Chen, Min; Thompson, Isaac; Khan, Zarrar; Narayan, Kanishka B.

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01231-y

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Journal Article · Wed Feb 07 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01231-y· OSTI ID:2290396

; ; Chen, Min; Thompson, Isaac; ;

Abstract

Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 ^st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km ² of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr ⁻¹ , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO ₂ yr ⁻¹ . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 ^st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2290396

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2299510

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--185952; 70; PII: 1231

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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