SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Technical Report · Tue Jan 30 04:00:00 EST 2024

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/2287736· OSTI ID:2287736

Kroll, Kayla A. ^[1]; Sheramn, Christopher S. ^[1]; Geffers, Gina -Maria ^[1]; Wang, Chaoyi ^[1]; Layland-Bachmann, Corinne ^[2]

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1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: AC52-07NA27344
• OSTI ID: 2287736
• Report Number(s): LLNL--TR-860182; 1091116
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES