Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Baniya, Rupesh; Regmi, Ram Krishna; Talchabhadel, Rocky; Sharma, Sanjib; Panthi, Jeeban; Ghimire, Ganesh R.; Bista, Sunil; Thapa, Bhesh Raj; Pradhan, Ananta M. S.; Tamrakar, Jebin

doi:10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Journal Article · Mon Jan 29 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Theoretical and Applied Climatology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04863-4· OSTI ID:2283830

Baniya, Rupesh ^[1]; Regmi, Ram Krishna ^[2]; Talchabhadel, Rocky ^[3]; Sharma, Sanjib ^[4]; Panthi, Jeeban ^[5]; Ghimire, Ganesh R. ^[6]; Bista, Sunil ^[3]; Thapa, Bhesh Raj ^[7]; Pradhan, Ananta M. S. ^[8]; Tamrakar, Jebin ^[8]

Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur (Nepal); Water Resource Research and Development Centre (WRRDC), Pulchowk (Nepal)
Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur (Nepal)
Jackson State University, MS (United States)
Howard University, Washington, DC (United States)
Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Pokhara University, Lalitpur (Nepal)
Water Resource Research and Development Centre (WRRDC), Pulchowk (Nepal)

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 2283830

Journal Information:: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Name: Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 155; ISSN 0177-798X

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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