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Title: Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

Abstract

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.

Authors:
; ;  [1];  [2]; ; ; ; ; ;  [1]
  1. Southeast University, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital (China)
  2. Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People’s Hospital, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology (China)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22645336
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiology; Journal Volume: 40; Journal Issue: 2; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2017 Springer Science+Business Media New York and the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE); http://www.springer-ny.com; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; ACCURACY; BONE FRACTURES; CEMENTS; COMPRESSION; FORECASTING; HAZARDS; HOSPITALS; PATIENTS; PROBABILITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SKELETAL DISEASES; TRAINING; VALIDATION

Citation Formats

Zhong, Bin-Yan, He, Shi-Cheng, Zhu, Hai-Dong, Wu, Chun-Gen, Fang, Wen, Chen, Li, Guo, Jin-He, Deng, Gang, Zhu, Guang-Yu, and Teng, Gao-Jun, E-mail: gjteng@vip.sina.com. Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1007/S00270-016-1492-1.
Zhong, Bin-Yan, He, Shi-Cheng, Zhu, Hai-Dong, Wu, Chun-Gen, Fang, Wen, Chen, Li, Guo, Jin-He, Deng, Gang, Zhu, Guang-Yu, & Teng, Gao-Jun, E-mail: gjteng@vip.sina.com. Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model. United States. doi:10.1007/S00270-016-1492-1.
Zhong, Bin-Yan, He, Shi-Cheng, Zhu, Hai-Dong, Wu, Chun-Gen, Fang, Wen, Chen, Li, Guo, Jin-He, Deng, Gang, Zhu, Guang-Yu, and Teng, Gao-Jun, E-mail: gjteng@vip.sina.com. Wed . "Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model". United States. doi:10.1007/S00270-016-1492-1.
@article{osti_22645336,
title = {Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model},
author = {Zhong, Bin-Yan and He, Shi-Cheng and Zhu, Hai-Dong and Wu, Chun-Gen and Fang, Wen and Chen, Li and Guo, Jin-He and Deng, Gang and Zhu, Guang-Yu and Teng, Gao-Jun, E-mail: gjteng@vip.sina.com},
abstractNote = {PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.},
doi = {10.1007/S00270-016-1492-1},
journal = {Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiology},
number = 2,
volume = 40,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}