Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

Journal Article · Wed Feb 15 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/S00270-016-1492-1· OSTI ID:22645336

Zhong, Bin-Yan; He, Shi-Cheng; Zhu, Hai-Dong ^[1]; Wu, Chun-Gen ^[2]; Fang, Wen; Chen, Li; Guo, Jin-He; Deng, Gang; Zhu, Guang-Yu; Teng, Gao-Jun ^[1]

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1. Southeast University, Department of Radiology, Medical School, Zhongda Hospital (China)
2. Shanghai Jiao Tong University Affiliated Sixth People’s Hospital, Department of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology (China)

PurposeWe aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.Materials and MethodsPatients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.Results421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.ConclusionsThe PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.

• OSTI ID: 22645336
• Journal Information: Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiology, Vol. 40, Issue 2; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2017 Springer Science+Business Media New York and the Cardiovascular and Interventional Radiological Society of Europe (CIRSE); http://www.springer-ny.com; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); ISSN 0174-1551
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE
ACCURACY
BONE FRACTURES
CEMENTS
COMPRESSION
FORECASTING
HAZARDS
HOSPITALS
PATIENTS
PROBABILITY
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
SKELETAL DISEASES
TRAINING
VALIDATION