Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

Journal Article · Thu Dec 04 04:00:00 EST 2014 · AIP Conference Proceedings

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4903588· OSTI ID:22390750

Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam ^[1]

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1. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjung Malim, Perak (Malaysia)

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

• OSTI ID: 22390750
• Journal Information: AIP Conference Proceedings, Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 1635; ISSN APCPCS; ISSN 0094-243X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
BIOLOGICAL MODELS
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
DIAGRAMS
FEMALES
GRAPH THEORY
HAZARDS
HUMAN POPULATIONS
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
MALAYSIA
MAPPING
MOSQUITOES
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
VECTORS
VIRUSES