Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management - 12097
- Predicus LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States)
- GoldSim Technology Group, LLC, Issaquah, WA 98027 (United States)
- Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439 (United States)
The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation's nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM 'owns' a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors. Each contaminated building, land area and waste stream is tracked from cradle to grave, and all of the linkages affecting different waste streams are captured. The progression of the activities is fully dynamic, reflecting DOE-EM's prioritization approaches, precedence requirements, available funding, and the consequences of risks and uncertainties. The top level of PRISM is the end-user interface that allows rapid evaluation of alternative scenarios and viewing the results in a variety of useful ways. PRISM is a fully probabilistic model, allowing the user to specify uncertainties in input data (such as the magnitude of an existing groundwater plume, or the total cost to complete a planned activity) as well as specific risk events that might occur. PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures. The PRISM model demonstrates how EM can evaluate a portfolio of ELOs, and transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, utilizing different strategic approaches. There are many types of ELOs - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D and D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. This scope of work for the PRISM process and the development of a dynamic simulation model are a logical extension of the GoldSim simulation software used by the OCRWM to assess the long-term performance for the Yucca Mountain Project and by NNSA to assess project risk at its sites. Systems integration modeling will promote better understanding of all project risks, technical and nontechnical, and more defensible decision-making for complex projects with significant uncertainties. It can provide effective visual communication and rapid adaptation during interactions with stakeholders (Administration, Congress, State, Local, and NGO). It will also allow rapid assessment of alternative management approaches. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- WM Symposia, 1628 E. Southern Avenue, Suite 9-332, Tempe, AZ 85282 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 22293416
- Report Number(s):
- INIS-US-14-WM-12097; TRN: US14V1069114940
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: WM2012: Waste Management 2012 conference on improving the future in waste management, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 26 Feb - 1 Mar 2012; Other Information: Country of input: France; 7 refs.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DECISION MAKING
EVALUATION
GROUND WATER
HAZARDS
INTERACTIONS
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PLANNING
WASTE MANAGEMENT
WASTES