A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Xiao, Ting; Chen, Ting; Ma, Zhiwei; Tian, Hailong; Meguerdijian, Saro; Chen, Bailian; Pawar, Rajesh; Huang, Lianjie; Xu, Tianfu; Cather, Martha; McPherson, Brian

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2023.113945

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Journal Article · Fri Nov 03 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113945· OSTI ID:2222624

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[2]; Tian, Hailong ^[3]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; Xu, Tianfu ^[3]; Cather, Martha ^[4]; McPherson, Brian ^[1]

Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Jilin Univ., Changchun (China)
New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO₂ migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, Morgantown, WV, and Albany, OR (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; FC26-05NT42591

OSTI ID:: 2222624

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--23-23379

Journal Information:: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Name: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Vol. 189; ISSN 1364-0321

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Forecasting evolution of formation water chemistry and long-term mineral alteration for GCS in a typical clastic reservoir of the Southwestern United States Pan, Feng; McPherson, Brian J.; Esser, Rich International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 54 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.07.035	journal	November 2016
Wellbore corrosion and failure assessment for CO2 EOR and storage: Two case studies in the Weyburn field Laumb, Jason D.; Glazewski, Kyle A.; Hamling, John A. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 54 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.08.031	journal	November 2016
A risk-based framework for Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) of the Goldeneye storage complex for the Peterhead CCS project, UK Dean, Marcella; Tucker, Owain International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 61 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2017.03.014	journal	June 2017
Quantification of CO2-cement-rock interactions at the well-caprock-reservoir interface and implications for geological CO2 storage Xiao, Ting; McPherson, Brian; Bordelon, Amanda International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 63 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2017.05.009	journal	August 2017
Development of robust pressure management strategies for geologic CO2 sequestration Harp, Dylan R.; Stauffer, Philip H.; O’Malley, Daniel International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 64 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2017.06.012	journal	September 2017
CO 2 breakthrough—Caprock sealing efficiency and integrity for carbon geological storage Espinoza, D. Nicolas; Santamarina, J. Carlos International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 66 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2017.09.019	journal	November 2017
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Uncertainty quantification of CO2 storage using Bayesian model averaging and polynomial chaos expansion Jia, Wei; McPherson, Brian; Pan, Feng International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 71 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.02.015	journal	April 2018
CO2-SCREEN tool: Application to the oriskany sandstone to estimate prospective CO2 storage resource Sanguinito, Sean; Goodman, Angela L.; Sams, James I. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 75 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.05.022	journal	August 2018
Toward an adaptive monitoring design for leakage risk – Closing the loop of monitoring and modeling Yang, Ya-Mei; Dilmore, Robert M.; Bromhal, Grant S. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 76 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.06.014	journal	September 2018
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Potential CO2 and brine leakage through wellbore pathways for geologic CO2 sequestration using the National Risk Assessment Partnership tools: Application to the Big Sky Regional Partnership Onishi, Tsubasa; Nguyen, Minh C.; Carey, J. William International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 81 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2018.12.002	journal	February 2019
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CO2 leakage detection in the near-surface above natural CO2-rich water aquifer using soil gas monitoring Kim, Jihyun; Yu, Soonyoung; Yun, Seong-Taek International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 88 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.06.015	journal	September 2019
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A controlled CO2 release experiment in a fault zone at the In-Situ Laboratory in Western Australia Michael, Karsten; Avijegon, Arsham; Ricard, Ludovic International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 99 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103100	journal	August 2020
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A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model for simulating leakoff-dominated hydraulic fracturing with application to geologic carbon storage Ju, Xin; Fu, Pengcheng; Settegast, Randolph R. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 109 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103379	journal	July 2021
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Field-scale fault reactivation experiments by fluid injection highlight aseismic leakage in caprock analogs: Implications for CO2 sequestration Guglielmi, Yves; Nussbaum, Christophe; Cappa, Frédéric International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Vol. 111 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2021.103471	journal	October 2021
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Carbon Storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery in Pennsylvanian Morrow Formation Clastic Reservoirs: Controls on Oil–Brine and Oil–CO2 Relative Permeability from Diagenetic Heterogeneity and Evolving Wettability Rasmussen, Lindsey; Fan, Tianguang; Rinehart, Alex Energies, Vol. 12, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.3390/en12193663	journal	September 2019
A Review of CO2 Storage in View of Safety and Cost-Effectiveness Cao, Cheng; Liu, Hejuan; Hou, Zhengmeng Energies, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.3390/en13030600	journal	January 2020
Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit Xiao, Ting; McPherson, Brian; Esser, Richard Energies, Vol. 13, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246574	journal	December 2020
Impact of Mineral Reactive Surface Area on Forecasting Geological Carbon Sequestration in a CO2-EOR Field Jia, Wei; Xiao, Ting; Wu, Zhidi Energies, Vol. 14, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061608	journal	March 2021
Risk Assessment and Management Workflow—An Example of the Southwest Regional Partnership Lee, Si-Yong; Hnottavange-Telleen, Ken; Jia, Wei Energies, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/en14071908	journal	March 2021
Analysis of Geologic CO2 Migration Pathways in Farnsworth Field, NW Anadarko Basin van Wijk, Jolante; Hobbs, Noah; Rose, Peter Energies, Vol. 14, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227818	journal	November 2021
Coupled Hydromechanical Modeling and Assessment of Induced Seismicity at FWU: Utilizing Time-Lapse VSP and Microseismic Data Acheampong, Samuel Appiah; Ampomah, William; Lee, Don Energies, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.3390/en16104163	journal	May 2023
Microseismic Monitoring at the Farnsworth CO2-EOR Field Qin, Yan; Li, Jiaxuan; Huang, Lianjie Energies, Vol. 16, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.3390/en16104177	journal	May 2023
Legacy Well Leakage Risk Analysis at the Farnsworth Unit Site Chu, Shaoping; Viswanathan, Hari; Moodie, Nathan Energies, Vol. 16, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.3390/en16186437	journal	September 2023
The Changing Role of CO2 in the Transition to a Circular Economy: Review of Carbon Sequestration Projects Tcvetkov, Pavel; Cherepovitsyn, Alexey; Fedoseev, Sergey Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205834	journal	October 2019

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
And storage (CCUS)
Carbon capture
Earth sciences
Geologic carbon storage (GCS)
Induced seismicity
Leakage
Risk and uncertainty assessment
Storage capacity
Underground sources of drinking water (USDW)
Utilization

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

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