APR1400 LBLOCA uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo method and comparison with Wilks' formula
Conference
·
OSTI ID:22107796
- Korea Atomic Energy Research Inst., 150 Dukjin-dong, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
An analysis of the uncertainty quantification for the PWR LBLOCA by the Monte Carlo calculation has been performed and compared with the tolerance level determined by Wilks' formula. The uncertainty range and distribution of each input parameter associated with the LBLOCA accident were determined by the PIRT results from the BEMUSE project. The Monte-Carlo method shows that the 95. percentile PCT value can be obtained reliably with a 95% confidence level using the Wilks' formula. The extra margin by the Wilks' formula over the true 95. percentile PCT by the Monte-Carlo method was rather large. Even using the 3 rd order formula, the calculated value using the Wilks' formula is nearly 100 K over the true value. It is shown that, with the ever increasing computational capability, the Monte-Carlo method is accessible for the nuclear power plant safety analysis within a realistic time frame. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 22107796
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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