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Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9]
  1. New York University Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (ACCESS); McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada)
  2. New York University Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (ACCESS); Institute of Applied Technology, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)
  3. Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL (United States)
  4. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
  5. New York University Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (ACCESS); Climate Research and Services, Pune (India)
  6. India Meteorological Department, New Delhi (India)
  7. New York University Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates). Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences (ACCESS); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  8. Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi (India)
  9. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi (India)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Government of India; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Tamkeen; US Department of the Navy, Office of Naval Research (ONR); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
2204883
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--188624
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Pacific decadal oscillation
tropical cyclone
vorticity
wind shear