Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Feng, Dongyu; Tan, Zeli; Xu, Donghui; Leung, L. Ruby

doi:10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023

Title: Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Journal Article · Mon Nov 06 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3911-2023· OSTI ID:2204745

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Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: KP1703110/75415; AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2204745

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2339549

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-181995

Journal Information:: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online), Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online) Vol. 27 Journal Issue: 21; ISSN 1607-7938

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

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Title: Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

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