Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

Beiter, Philipp; Mai, Trieu; Mowers, Matthew; Bistline, John

doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01364-y

Expanded modelling scenarios to understand the role of offshore wind in decarbonizing the United States

Journal Article · Mon Oct 09 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Nature Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01364-y· OSTI ID:2204383

^[1]; Mai, Trieu ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Independent Consultant, New York City, NY (United States)
Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)

An assessment of decarbonization pathways in energy models reveals fundamental limitations in representing factors that are relevant for practical decision-making. Although these modelling limitations are widely acknowledged, their impact on the deployment of individual power generation types is not well understood. As a result, the societal value from such generation types could be vastly misrepresented. Here we explore a wide spectrum of factors that impact offshore wind deployment in the United States using a detailed capacity expansion model. Many factors prescribe a large future role for offshore wind, yet this diverges from what models often show. We extend the typically narrow modelling context through high spatial resolution, several cost and transmission possibilities and various energy-sector policies. Further, we estimate offshore wind to constitute 1-8% (31-256 gigawatts) of total US generation by 2050. This wide range suggests an uncertain but potentially important regional role. Our expansive scenarios demonstrate how to address many limitations of decarbonization modelling.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2204383

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5000-81971; MainId:82744; UUID:0c7a2abc-3af3-4510-918b-e93570370ba0; MainAdminID:67601

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Journal Name: Nature Energy Vol. 8; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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