AUTOMATED SOLAR FLARE STATISTICS IN SOFT X-RAYS OVER 37 YEARS OF GOES OBSERVATIONS: THE INVARIANCE OF SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY DURING THREE SOLAR CYCLES

Journal Article · Wed Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 2012 · Astrophysical Journal

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/754/2/112· OSTI ID:22039233

Aschwanden, Markus J

We analyzed the soft X-ray light curves from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites over the last 37 years (1975-2011) and measured with an automated flare detection algorithm over 300,000 solar flare events (amounting to Almost-Equal-To 5 times higher sensitivity than the NOAA flare catalog). We find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub F} = 1.98 {+-} 0.11 for the (background-subtracted) soft X-ray peak fluxes that is invariant through three solar cycles and agrees with the theoretical prediction {alpha}{sub F} = 2.0 of the fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality (FD-SOC) model. For the soft X-ray flare rise times, we find a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub T} = 2.02 {+-} 0.04 during solar cycle minima years, which is also consistent with the prediction {alpha}{sub T} = 2.0 of the FD-SOC model. During solar cycle maxima years, the power-law slope is steeper in the range of {alpha}{sub T} Almost-Equal-To 2.0-5.0, which can be modeled by a solar-cycle-dependent flare pile-up bias effect. These results corroborate the FD-SOC model, which predicts a power-law slope of {alpha}{sub E} = 1.5 for flare energies and thus rules out significant nanoflare heating. While the FD-SOC model predicts the probability distribution functions of spatio-temporal scaling laws of nonlinear energy dissipation processes, additional physical models are needed to derive the scaling laws between the geometric SOC parameters and the observed emissivity in different wavelength regimes, as we derive here for soft X-ray emission. The FD-SOC model also yields statistical probabilities for solar flare forecasting.

• OSTI ID: 22039233
• Journal Information: Astrophysical Journal, Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 754; ISSN ASJOAB; ISSN 0004-637X
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
ASTRONOMY
ASTROPHYSICS
CATALOGS
CRITICALITY
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
EMISSIVITY
ENERGY LOSSES
GAMMA RADIATION
GOES SATELLITES
PHOTON EMISSION
SCALING LAWS
SOFT X RADIATION
SOLAR CYCLE
SOLAR FLARES
SUN
VISIBLE RADIATION