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Use Probabilistic Forecasts in Reliable and Economic Electricity Market Scheduling and Operations

Conference ·
OSTI ID:2203695
The value of probabilistic forecasts in electricity market operations is being increasingly recognized lately, however, the use is still limited. This study demonstrates two cases of using probabilistic forecasts in scheduling and operations of the California electricity market. We first develop a data-driven method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping reserves based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. By using forecasts across multiple sites, our proposed method presents advantages over the real-world baseline in terms of system reliability and economics. Our second case uses probabilistic hydro power forecasts in the scheduling of a hydro power plant under economic and environmental constraints. By optimizing the bids into both the day-ahead and real-time markets, our results demonstrate considerable economic benefits.
Research Organization:
Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
17; 15; 58
DOE Contract Number:
AC07-05ID14517
OSTI ID:
2203695
Report Number(s):
INL/CON-22-69637-Rev000
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English