A stochastic method for stand-alone photovoltaic system sizing

Journal Article · Wed Sep 15 04:00:00 EDT 2010 · Solar Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SOLENER.2010.06.006· OSTI ID:21337917

Cabral, Claudia Valeria Tavora; Filho, Delly Oliveira; Martins, Jose Helvecio; Toledo, Olga Moraes ^[1]

---

1. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicosa, Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n. 36570-000 Vicosa, Minas Gerais (Brazil)

Photovoltaic systems utilize solar energy to generate electrical energy to meet load demands. Optimal sizing of these systems includes the characterization of solar radiation. Solar radiation at the Earth's surface has random characteristics and has been the focus of various academic studies. The objective of this study was to stochastically analyze parameters involved in the sizing of photovoltaic generators and develop a methodology for sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. Energy storage for isolated systems and solar radiation were analyzed stochastically due to their random behavior. For the development of the methodology proposed stochastic analysis were studied including the Markov chain and beta probability density function. The obtained results were compared with those for sizing of stand-alone using from the Sandia method (deterministic), in which the stochastic model presented more reliable values. Both models present advantages and disadvantages; however, the stochastic one is more complex and provides more reliable and realistic results. (author)

• OSTI ID: 21337917
• Journal Information: Solar Energy, Journal Name: Solar Energy Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 84; ISSN 0038-092X; ISSN SRENA4
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY
CALCULATION METHODS
COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS
Deterministic sizing
ENERGY STORAGE
MARKOV PROCESS
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SUPPLIES
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS
Probabilistic modeling
SIMULATION
SIZE
SOLAR RADIATION
Stand-alone photovoltaic systems
Stochastic sizing