Influence of weather on the synchrony of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) outbreaks in New England
Journal Article
·
· Environmental Entomology
- Forest Service, Radnor, PA (United States)
Outbreaks of the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), were partially synchronous across New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont) from 1938 to 1992. To explain this synchrony, we investigated the Moran effect, a hypothesis that local population oscillations, which result form similar density-dependent mechanisms operating at time lags, may be synchronized over wide areas by exposure to common weather patterns. We also investigated the theory of climatic release, which ostulates that outbreaks are triggered by climatic factors favorable for population growth. Time series analysis revealed defoliation series in 2 states as 1st-order autoregressive processes and the other 2 as periodic 2nd-order autoregressive processes. Defoliation residuals series computed using the autoregressive models for each state were cross correlated with series of weather variables recorded in the respective states. The weather variables significantly correlated with defoliation residuals in all 4 states were minimum temperature and precipitation in mid-December in the same gypsy moth generation and minimum temperature in mid- to late July of the previous generation. These weather variables also were correlated strongly among the 4 states. The analyses supported the predictions of the Moran effect and suggest the common weather may synchronize local populations so as to produce pest outbreaks over wide areas. We did not find convincing evidence to support the theory of climatic release. 41 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 213081
- Journal Information:
- Environmental Entomology, Journal Name: Environmental Entomology Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 24; ISSN 0046-225X; ISSN EVETBX
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Forest defoliators and climatic change: Potential changes in spatial distribution of outbreaks of western spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae)
Tracking changes in the susceptibility of forest land infested with gypsy moth. Forest Service research paper (Final)
Gypsy moths: Geographic distribution and control. (Latest citations from the Biobusiness database). Published Search
Journal Article
·
Tue Jan 31 23:00:00 EST 1995
· Environmental Entomology
·
OSTI ID:258712
Tracking changes in the susceptibility of forest land infested with gypsy moth. Forest Service research paper (Final)
Technical Report
·
Mon Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1994
·
OSTI ID:7012127
Gypsy moths: Geographic distribution and control. (Latest citations from the Biobusiness database). Published Search
Technical Report
·
Mon Feb 28 23:00:00 EST 1994
·
OSTI ID:5104638