Uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A review of the 1995 Pellston conference
- Cadmus Group, Durham, NC (United States)
In August of 1995, SETAC sponsored a Pellston conference entitled Uncertainty in Ecological Risk Assessment. In this presentation, the author will provide an overview of the consensus opinions reached during the conference including such areas as the role of uncertainty analysis in risk assessments, statistical methods and issues in uncertainty analysis, communicating uncertainty, the legal aspects of uncertainty, and the role of uncertainty in regulatory programs. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a process that estimates the probability and magnitude of adverse ecological effects as a result of exposure to one or more chemical, biological, or physical stressors. Since the publication of EPA`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, ERA is becoming a widely used tool for environmental decision-making by private sector and government managers. As defined by EPA, risk assessments should be both probabilistic and quantitative, including an uncertainty analysis of the risk estimates. In practice, uncertainty in the risk estimates is frequently ignored or incorrectly calculated. In fact, many risk assessors find the uncertainty component of the risk framework difficult to implement and interpret. Uncertainty provides a measure of precision or value of the scientific information available for ecological risk studies. When uncertainty is ignored, this results in the illusion that the scientific information is more precise than it actually is. As a consequence, environmental managers are apt to exhibit surprise, or disappointment, when their management decisions lead to outcomes that are substantially different from expectations.
- OSTI ID:
- 211972
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9511137--; ISBN 1-880611-03-1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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