Emission projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 Second Prospective Clean Air Act cost/benefit analysis
- E.H. Pechan & Associates, Inc., Springfield, VA (United States)
This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO{sub 2} emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020. 16 refs., 6 figs., 13 tabs.
- OSTI ID:
- 21085150
- Journal Information:
- Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, Vol. 58, Issue 5; ISSN 1047-3289
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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POLICY AND ECONOMY
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
USA
CLEAN AIR ACTS
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
EMISSION
FORECASTING
US EPA
AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
NITROGEN OXIDES
SULFUR DIOXIDE
POWER GENERATION
ELECTRIC POWER
IMPLEMENTATION
DATA ANALYSIS
AIR QUALITY
AMENDMENTS
VOLATILE MATTER
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
COAL
FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS
PRICES
SUBBITUMINOUS COAL
VEHICLES
PARTICULATES