Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event

Journal Article · Tue Mar 27 04:00:00 EDT 2007 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610122104· OSTI ID:21021709

Donner, S D ^[1]; Knutson, T R ^[2]; Oppenheimer, M ^[3]

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1. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.
3. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Dept. of Geosciences

Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, the authors use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5{sup o}C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term 'committed warming' even after stabilization of atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

• OSTI ID: 21021709
• Journal Information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 104; ISSN 0027-8424; ISSN PNASA6
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
BLEACHING
CLIMATE MODELS
CLIMATES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
CORALS
GREENHOUSE GASES
HURRICANES
PROBABILITY
SEAS
SEASONS
SIMULATION
STABILIZATION