Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan
- Tokyo Electric Power Company (Japan)
- Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd, 3-3, Higashiueno 3-Chome, Taito-ku, Tokyo 110-0015 (Japan)
It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present an example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- The ASME Foundation, Inc., Three Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5990 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 20995669
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 14. international conference on nuclear engineering (ICONE 14), Miami, FL (United States), 17-20 Jul 2006; Other Information: Country of input: France
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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