Scenario development in China's electricity sector

Journal Article · Sun Jul 15 04:00:00 EDT 2007 · Technological Forecasting and Social Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.09.004· OSTI ID:20947420

Steenhof, P A; Fulton, W ^[1]

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1. Carleton University, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Environmental Studies

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

• OSTI ID: 20947420
• Journal Information: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Journal Name: Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 74; ISSN TFSCB3; ISSN 0040-1625
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CHINA
COAL
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMY
ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
EMISSION
FORECASTING
FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS
FUEL CONSUMPTION
NATURAL GAS
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