Time-decreasing hazard and increasing time until the next earthquake
Journal Article
·
· Physical Review. E, Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics
- Grup de Fisica Estadistica, Departament de Fisica, Facultat de Ciencies, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain)
The existence of a slowly always decreasing probability density for the recurrence times of earthquakes in the stationary case implies that the occurrence of an event at a given instant becomes more unlikely as time since the previous event increases. Consequently, the expected waiting time to the next earthquake increases with the elapsed time, that is, the event moves away fast to the future. We have found direct empirical evidence of this counterintuitive behavior in two worldwide catalogs as well as in diverse regional catalogs. Universal scaling functions describe the phenomenon well.
- OSTI ID:
- 20641368
- Journal Information:
- Physical Review. E, Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics, Journal Name: Physical Review. E, Statistical Physics, Plasmas, Fluids, and Related Interdisciplinary Topics Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 71; ISSN PLEEE8; ISSN 1063-651X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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