Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Reed, Kevin A.; Wehner, Michael F.

doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acfd4e

Real-time attribution of the influence of climate change on extreme weather events: a storyline case study of Hurricane Ian rainfall

Journal Article · Fri Oct 06 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Environmental Research. Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acfd4e· OSTI ID:2007980

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Abstract

As the Earth continues to warm due to human greenhouse gas emissions, there is a growing need to efficiently communicate the effect that global warming has on individual extreme weather events. Using a storyline approach, we present a rapid attribution of the increase in rainfall over Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022 due to climate change as a case study. We find that extreme accumulated rainfall amounts associated with Hurricane Ian increased by 18%, far in excess of what would be expected by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. The study offers a blueprint for rapid operational climate change attribution statements about extreme storms and other very rare weather events.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 2007980

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2006523

Journal Information:: Environmental Research. Climate, Journal Name: Environmental Research. Climate Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 2; ISSN 2752-5295

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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