Insights into ENSO Diversity from an Intermediate Coupled Model. Part II: Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Forcing

Journal Article · Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0044.1· OSTI ID:2007132

Geng, Licheng ^[1]; Jin, Fei-Fei ^[1]

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1. a Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, Hawaii

Abstract

In this study, we investigate how a single leading linear El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, as studied in Part I, leads to the irregular coexistence of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, a phenomenon known as ENSO spatiotemporal diversity. This diversity is fundamentally generated by deterministic nonlinear pathways to chaos via the period-doubling route and, more prevailingly, the subharmonic resonance route with the presence of a seasonally varying basic state. When residing in the weakly nonlinear regime, the coupled system sustains a weak periodic oscillation with a mixed CP/EP pattern as captured by the linear ENSO mode. With a stronger nonlinearity effect, the ENSO behavior experiences a period-doubling bifurcation. The single ENSO orbit splits into coexisting CP-like and EP-like ENSO orbits. A sequence of period-doubling bifurcation results in an aperiodic oscillation featuring irregular CP and EP ENSO occurrences. The overlapping of subharmonic resonances between ENSO and the seasonal cycle allows this ENSO irregularity and diversity to be more readily excited. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the coupled system is dominated by regular EP ENSO. The deterministic ENSO spatiotemporal diversity is thus confined to a relatively narrow range corresponding to a moderately unstable ENSO mode. Stochastic forcing broadens this range and allows ENSO diversity to occur when the ENSO mode is weakly subcritical. A close relationship among a weakened mean zonal temperature gradient, stronger ENSO activity, and more (fewer) occurrences of EP (CP) ENSO is noted, indicating that ENSO–mean state interaction may yield ENSO regime modulations on the multidecadal time scale.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: SC0005110
• OSTI ID: 2007132
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 21 Vol. 36; ISSN 0894-8755
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English