Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

Awara, Sarah; Murphy, Caitlin; Schleifer, Anna; Stephen, Gord; Denholm, Paul

doi:10.1016/j.nxener.2023.100021

Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

Journal Article · Mon Apr 17 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Next Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2023.100021· OSTI ID:2005575

^[1]; Murphy, Caitlin ^[1]; Schleifer, Anna ^[1]; Stephen, Gord ^[1]; Denholm, Paul ^[1]

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Battery storage is increasingly identified as being among the least-cost mix of technologies in the evolving U.S. electricity mix. This study explores the marginal capacity credit of batteries using a probabilistic, reliability-based, effective firm capacity method, which we apply for multiple battery power ratings, durations, coupling types, deployment locations, and dispatch profiles within a test system that is based on the Texas Interconnection in the year 2024. We find that the capacity credits for all battery durations depend on their ability to predict the timing of reliability events. Even 1-2 h forecast errors - resulting in early or delayed battery discharging relative to the onset of a reliability event - lead pronounced capacity credit reductions, especially for 4-h duration batteries. Coupling batteries with solar mitigates the uncertainty associated with a shorter-duration battery's availability during reliability events, primarily due to the relatively high solar capacity credit in our test system. Coupled (or hybrid) system designs with oversized solar arrays, the ability to charge the coupled battery with grid energy, and larger batteries lead to the greatest capacity credit benefits of hybridization. We do not see evidence that the hybrid capacity credit exceeds the sum of the separate battery and solar capacity credits.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2005575

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--6A40-81973; MainId:82746; UUID:6ced3372-fcf5-415e-a9e5-66e59888dbeb; MainAdminID:70728

Journal Information:: Next Energy, Journal Name: Next Energy Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 1; ISSN 2949-821X

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Impacts of hybridization and forecast errors on the probabilistic capacity credit of batteries

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