Treatment of uncertain emissivity in a large thermal optimization problem
This paper assesses the impact of unknown emissivity on the optimal (worst-case) heating configuration that most severely threatens the integrity of a weapon saving device in a fire. A large nonlinear 3-D finite element thermal model used to determine the transient thermal response of the device plays a central role in the analysis. In such fire environments thermal radiation is usually the dominant mode of heat transfer within the device, and thermal response can be very sensitive to internal radiative emissivity. However, emissivity is usually not well characterized in such devices, and can change due to aging and in particular very dramatically during the timespan of a fire. Such uncertainty can have a large effect on perceived device reliability and therefore on the improvement and qualification of the design. Via the following case study a framework is presented for handling uncertainty in a complex reliability problem where probabilistic optimization is used to provide as comprehensive and robust optima (worst-case heating conditions to design to) as can be achieved given the lack of knowledge in the problem. Additionally, the framework seeks to achieve this with optimal efficiency.
- Research Organization:
- Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC04-94AL85000
- OSTI ID:
- 20002460
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-990805--
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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