Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Jiang, Xianan; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Wu, Longtao; Tsushima, Yoko; Elsaesser, Gregory

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0

Title: Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Journal Article · Mon Sep 11 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41360-0· OSTI ID:1999447

; Su, Hui;

; Neelin, J. David; Wu, Longtao;

; Elsaesser, Gregory

Abstract A large spread in model estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the global mean near-surface air-temperature increase following a doubling of atmospheric CO ₂ concentration, leaves us greatly disadvantaged in guiding policy-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation. In this study, we show that the projected ECS in the latest generation of climate models is highly related to seasonal variations of extratropical low-cloud fraction (LCF) in historical simulations. Marked reduction of extratropical LCF from winter to summer is found in models with ECS > 4.75 K, in accordance with the significant reduction of extratropical LCF under a warming climate in these models. In contrast, a pronounced seasonal cycle of extratropical LCF, as supported by satellite observations, is largely absent in models with ECS < 3.3 K. The distinct seasonality in extratropical LCF in climate models is ascribed to their different prevailing cloud regimes governing the extratropical LCF variability.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1999447

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Vol. 14 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (59)

CO ₂ Increase Experiments Using the CESM: Relationship to Climate Sensitivity and Comparison of CESM1 to CESM2 Bacmeister, J. T.; Hannay, C.; Medeiros, B. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002120	journal	November 2020
Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Stolpe, Martin B.; Sippel, Sebastian Science Advances, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz9549	journal	March 2020
Observational constraint on cloud feedbacks suggests moderate climate sensitivity Cesana, Grégory V.; Del Genio, Anthony D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00970-y	journal	February 2021
Analyzing the dependence of global cloud feedback on the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature change with a G reen's function approach Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001096	journal	September 2017
A quantitative performance assessment of cloud regimes in climate models Williams, K. D.; Webb, M. J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0443-1	journal	August 2008
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Gettelman, A.; Hannay, C.; Bacmeister, J. T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083978	journal	July 2019
The ERA5 global reanalysis Hersbach, Hans; Bell, Bill; Berrisford, Paul Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 730 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803	journal	June 2020
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models Rugenstein, Maria; Bloch‐Johnson, Jonah; Gregory, Jonathan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083898	journal	February 2020
Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks in the Context of the Global Circulation and Hydrological Cycle McCoy, Daniel T.; Field, Paul; Frazer, Michelle E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097154	journal	April 2022
Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Projections with Emergent Constraints: Concepts, Examples and Prospects Brient, Florent Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-9140-8	journal	December 2019
The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3796-5	journal	July 2017
The three-dimensional distribution of clouds around Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: THE 3-D DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS IN CYCLONES Govekar, Pallavi D.; Jakob, Christian; Reeder, Michael J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL049091	journal	November 2011
Taking climate model evaluation to the next level Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y	journal	January 2019
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2783	journal	August 2016
Origins of the Solar Radiation Biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 Models Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Williams, K. D.; Ringer, M. A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00169.1	journal	January 2014
The Surface Downwelling Solar Radiation Surplus over the Southern Ocean in the Met Office Model: The Role of Midlatitude Cyclone Clouds Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Williams, K. D.; Field, P. R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00702.1	journal	November 2012
Major Characteristics of Southern Ocean Cloud Regimes and Their Effects on the Energy Budget Haynes, John M.; Jakob, Christian; Rossow, William B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4052.1	journal	October 2011
Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity Tan, I.; Storelvmo, T.; Zelinka, M. D. Science, Vol. 352, Issue 6282 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5300	journal	April 2016
THE CLOUDSAT MISSION AND THE A-TRAIN: A New Dimension of Space-Based Observations of Clouds and Precipitation Stephens, Graeme L.; Vane, Deborah G.; Boain, Ronald J. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-12-1771	journal	December 2002
Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones Studholme, Joshua; Gulev, Sergey Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0852.1	journal	May 2018
A global survey of the instantaneous linkages between cloud vertical structure and large-scale climate Li, Ying; Thompson, David W. J.; Stephens, Graeme L. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020669	journal	April 2014
Low clouds link equilibrium climate sensitivity to hydrological sensitivity Watanabe, Masahiro; Kamae, Youichi; Shiogama, Hideo Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0272-0	journal	September 2018
Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Qin, Yi Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 127, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035198	journal	January 2022
Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0027-1	journal	October 2015
Emergent Constraints on Regional Cloud Feedbacks Lutsko, Nicholas J.; Popp, Max; Nazarian, Robert H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 48, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092934	journal	May 2021
Overview of the CALIPSO Mission and CALIOP Data Processing Algorithms Winker, David M.; Vaughan, Mark A.; Omar, Ali Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 26, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JTECHA1281.1	journal	November 2009
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? Schlund, Manuel; Lauer, Axel; Gentine, Pierre Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 11, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020	journal	January 2020
Attributing Historical and Future Evolution of Radiative Feedbacks to Regional Warming Patterns using a Green’s Function Approach: The Preeminence of the Western Pacific Dong, Yue; Proistosescu, Cristian; Armour, Kyle C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0843.1	journal	September 2019
Instantaneous Linkages between Clouds and Large-Scale Meteorology over the Southern Ocean in Observations and a Climate Model Wall, Casey J.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Ma, Po-Lun Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0156.1	journal	December 2017
Using model analysis and satellite data to assess cloud and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones Field, P. R.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Brooks, M. E. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 659 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.858	journal	June 2011
Causes of Higher Climate Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models Zelinka, Mark D.; Myers, Timothy A.; McCoy, Daniel T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782	journal	January 2020
Mixed‐phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models McCoy, Daniel T.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Zelinka, Mark D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023603	journal	September 2015
Extratropical Cyclone Clouds in the GFDL Climate Model: Diagnosing Biases and the Associated Causes Naud, Catherine M.; Booth, James F.; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0421.1	journal	September 2019
Computing and Partitioning Cloud Feedbacks Using Cloud Property Histograms. Part I: Cloud Radiative Kernels Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Hartmann, Dennis L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00248.1	journal	June 2012
Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis L. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x	journal	April 2015
Understanding the Varied Influence of Midlatitude Jet Position on Clouds and Cloud Radiative Effects in Observations and Global Climate Models Grise, Kevin M.; Medeiros, Brian Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0295.1	journal	December 2016
An Improved In Situ and Satellite SST Analysis for Climate Reynolds, Richard W.; Rayner, Nick A.; Smith, Thomas M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1609:AIISAS>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 2002
Cloud Vertical Distribution across Warm and Cold Fronts in CloudSat –CALIPSO Data and a General Circulation Model Naud, Catherine M.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Bauer, Mike Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3282.1	journal	June 2010
Hadley cell expansion in CMIP6 models Grise, Kevin M.; Davis, Sean M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5249-2020	journal	January 2020
Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity Myers, Timothy A.; Scott, Ryan C.; Zelinka, Mark D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01039-0	journal	May 2021
On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback Andrews, Timothy; Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro; Gregory, Jonathan M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 127, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036675	journal	September 2022
An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence Sherwood, S. C.; Webb, M. J.; Annan, J. D. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000678	journal	September 2020
The CloudSat radar-lidar geometrical profile product (RL-GeoProf): Updates, improvements, and selected results: CLOUDSAT RADAR-LIDAR GEOMETRICAL PROFILE Mace, Gerald G.; Zhang, Qiuqing Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021374	journal	August 2014
The Change in Low Cloud Cover in a Warmed Climate Inferred from AIRS, MODIS, and ERA-Interim McCoy, Daniel T.; Eastman, Ryan; Hartmann, Dennis L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0734.1	journal	May 2017
Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1	journal	September 2013
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028443	journal	January 2007
Tropical Widening: From Global Variations to Regional Impacts Staten, Paul W.; Grise, Kevin M.; Davis, Sean M. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0047.1	journal	June 2020
On the spread of changes in marine low cloud cover in climate model simulations of the 21st century Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1945-z	journal	September 2013
Strong Dependence of Atmospheric Feedbacks on Mixed‐Phase Microphysics and Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in HadGEM3 Bodas‐Salcedo, A.; Mulcahy, J. P.; Andrews, T. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001688	journal	June 2019
Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity: Cloud Feedback and Seasonal Variation Zhai, Chengxing; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065911	journal	October 2015
Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Edition-4.0 Data Product Loeb, Norman G.; Doelling, David R.; Wang, Hailan Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0208.1	journal	January 2018
Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models Meehl, Gerald A.; Senior, Catherine A.; Eyring, Veronika Science Advances, Vol. 6, Issue 26 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981	journal	June 2020
Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Joel R. Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 38, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9433-3	journal	October 2017
Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Rugenstein, Maria Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 13, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1715-2022	journal	December 2022
A Satellite View of the Synoptic-Scale Organization of Cloud Properties in Midlatitude and Tropical Circulation Systems Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Crane, Mark W. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 123, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<1984:ASVOTS>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 1995
Is climate sensitivity related to dynamical sensitivity?: Dynamical Sensitivity Grise, Kevin M.; Polvani, Lorenzo M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024687	journal	May 2016
Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3152.1	journal	January 2010

Similar Records

Exploring the environmental drivers of vegetation seasonality changes in the northern extratropical latitudes: a quantitative analysis ^*

Journal Article · Mon Sep 18 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1999447

Kong, Xiangxu; Mao, Jiafu; Chen, Haishan; +4 more

On the Links Between Ice Nucleation, Cloud Phase, and Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

Journal Article · Sat Sep 02 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Geophysical Research Letters (Online) · OSTI ID:1999447

Mcgraw, Zachary; Storelvmo, Trude; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; +3 more

Evaluating Climate Models’ Cloud Feedbacks Against Expert Judgment

Journal Article · Mon Jan 24 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · OSTI ID:1999447

Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Qin, Yi; +1 more

Title: Muted extratropical low cloud seasonal cycle is closely linked to underestimated climate sensitivity in models

Citation Formats

References (59)

Similar Records

Related Subjects