Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Bistline, John E. T.; Blanford, Geoffrey; Grant, John; Knipping, Eladio; McCollum, David L.; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Scarth, Heidi; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33902-9

Economy-wide evaluation of CO₂ and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States

Journal Article · Sat Nov 05 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33902-9· OSTI ID:1998994

^[1]; Blanford, Geoffrey ^[1]; Grant, John ^[2]; Knipping, Eladio ^[1]; ^[3]; Nopmongcol, Uarporn ^[2]; ^[1]; Shah, Tejas ^[2]; ^[2]

Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
Ramboll, Novato, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO₂ and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO₂ and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM_2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO₂ policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1998994

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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