Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

Conference · Wed Jul 19 04:00:00 EDT 2023

OSTI ID:1992297

Muller, Matthew; Rashed, Faisal

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 1992297
• Report Number(s): NREL/CP-5K00-85776; MainId:86549; UUID:fc6bcd91-5239-4bfb-9d16-8ef76aefc567; MainAdminID:69149
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Pvalues
SOLAR ENERGY
interannual variability
performance forecasting
photovoltaic soiling
uncertainty