Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Shao, Manqing; Fernando, Nelun; Zhu, John; Zhao, Gang; Kao, Shih‐Chieh; Zhao, Bingjie; Roberts, Elizabeth; Gao, Huilin

doi:10.1029/2022WR034099

Title: Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

Journal Article · Wed Jul 05 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR034099· OSTI ID:1988175

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^[2]; Zhu, John ^[2];

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^[1]; Roberts, Elizabeth ^[1];

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Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Texas A&,M University College Station TX USA
Water Availability Department Surface Water Division Texas Water Development Board Austin TX USA
Department of Global Ecology Carnegie Institution for Science Stanford CA USA
Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge TN USA

Abstract Climate change and increasing water demand due to population growth pose serious threats to surface water availability. The biggest challenge in addressing these threats is the gap between climate science and water management practices. Local water planning often lacks the integration of climate change information, especially with regard to its impacts on surface water storage and evaporation as well as the associated uncertainties. Using Texas as an example, state and regional water planning relies on the use of reservoir “Firm Yield” (FY)—an important metric that quantifies surface water availability. However, this existing planning methodology does not account for the impacts of climate change on future inflows and on reservoir evaporation. To bridge this knowledge gap, an integrated climate‐hydrology‐management (CHM) modeling framework was developed, which is generally applicable to river basins with geographical, hydrological, and water right settings similar to those in Texas. The framework leverages the advantages of two modeling approaches—the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) and Water Availability Modeling (WAM). Additionally, the Double Bias Correction Constructed Analogues method is utilized to downscale and incorporate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 GCMs. Finally, the DHSVM simulated naturalized streamflow and reservoir evaporation rate are input to WAM to simulate reservoir FY. A new term—“Ratio of Firm Yield” (RFY)—is created to compare how much FY changes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that climate change has a significant impact on surface water availability by increasing reservoir evaporation, altering the seasonal pattern of naturalized streamflow, and reducing FY.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Water Power Technologies Office; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SECURE Water Act Section 9505; AC05-00OR22725; CBET-1454297

OSTI ID:: 1988175

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1988340; OSTI ID: 1994214

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Vol. 59 Journal Issue: 7; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
water availability
climate change
reservoir firm yield
semi-arid area
open water evaporation
naturalized streamflow

Title: Estimating Future Surface Water Availability Through an Integrated Climate‐Hydrology‐Management Modeling Framework at a Basin Scale Under CMIP6 Scenarios

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