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A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Journal Article · · International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [3]
  1. Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
  2. Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
  3. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.
Research Organization:
Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
EE0008601
OSTI ID:
1986482
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1971690
Journal Information:
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, Journal Name: International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems Vol. 151; ISSN 0142-0615
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Figures / Tables (13)

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Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Data-driven modeling
Solar
Stochastic economic dispatch
Stochastic unit commitment
Uncertainty quantification
Wind