Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition

Perera, A. T. D.; Javanroodi, Kavan; Mauree, Dasaraden; Nik, Vahid M.; Florio, Pietro; Hong, Tianzhen; Chen, Deliang

doi:10.1038/s41560-023-01232-9

Challenges resulting from urban density and climate change for the EU energy transition

Journal Article · Mon Apr 10 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Nature Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01232-9· OSTI ID:1984828

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Princeton University, NJ (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lund University (Sweden); Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) (Switzerland)
Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) (Switzerland); BG Ingénieurs Conseils SA, Vernier (Switzerland)
Lund University (Sweden)
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (Italy)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
University of Gothenburg (Sweden)

Dense urban morphologies further amplify extreme climate events due to the urban heat island phenomenon, rendering cities more vulnerable to extreme climate events. Here we develop a modelling framework using multi-scale climate and energy system models to assess the compound impact of future climate variations and urban densification on renewable energy integration for 18 European cities. We observe a marked change in wind speed and temperature due to the aforementioned compound impact, resulting in a notable increase in both peak and annual energy demand. Therefore, an additional cost of 20–60% will be needed during the energy transition (without technology innovation in building) to guarantee climate resilience. Failure to consider extreme climate events will lower power supply reliability by up to 30%. Here, energy infrastructure in dense urban areas of southern Europe is more vulnerable to the compound impact, necessitating flexibility improvements at the design phase when improving renewable penetration levels.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1984828

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Journal Name: Nature Energy Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 8; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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