Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce over 50% of tropical precipitation and account for the majority of extreme rainfall and flooding events. MCSs are considered the building blocks of larger-scale convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). While CCEWs can provide favorable environments for convection, how CCEWs can systematically impact organized convection and thereby MCS characteristics is less clear. We examine this question by analyzing a global MCS tracking data set. During the active phase of CCEWs, MCS frequency increases and MCSs rain harder, produce more lifetime total rain, and grow larger in size. The probability of extreme MCSs also elevates. These changes are most pronounced when MCSs are associated with Kelvin waves and tropical depression-type waves while less so with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Furthermore, these results can be benchmarks to improve model representation of MCS interactions with large-scale circulations and can be leveraged for operational forecasts of high-impact MCSs at extended lead times.
@article{osti_1983757,
author = {Cheng, Yuan‐Ming and Dias, Juliana and Kiladis, George and Feng, Zhe and Leung, L. Ruby},
title = {Mesoscale Convective Systems Modulated by Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves},
annote = {Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce over 50% of tropical precipitation and account for the majority of extreme rainfall and flooding events. MCSs are considered the building blocks of larger-scale convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). While CCEWs can provide favorable environments for convection, how CCEWs can systematically impact organized convection and thereby MCS characteristics is less clear. We examine this question by analyzing a global MCS tracking data set. During the active phase of CCEWs, MCS frequency increases and MCSs rain harder, produce more lifetime total rain, and grow larger in size. The probability of extreme MCSs also elevates. These changes are most pronounced when MCSs are associated with Kelvin waves and tropical depression-type waves while less so with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Furthermore, these results can be benchmarks to improve model representation of MCS interactions with large-scale circulations and can be leveraged for operational forecasts of high-impact MCSs at extended lead times.},
doi = {10.1029/2023gl103335},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1983757},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
issn = {ISSN 0094-8276},
number = {10},
volume = {50},
place = {United States},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)},
year = {2023},
month = {05}}