Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Xi, Dazhi; Lin, Ning

doi:10.1175/jhm-d-21-0208.1

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Hydrometeorology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-21-0208.1· OSTI ID:1983022

Xi, Dazhi ^[1]; Lin, Ning ^[1]

Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Fondation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0014664

OSTI ID:: 1983022

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrometeorology, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrometeorology Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 23; ISSN 1525-755X

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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