Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

Zhang, Lujun; Kim, Taereem; Yang, Tiantian; Hong, Yang; Zhu, Qian

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127058

Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

Journal Article · Fri Oct 15 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Journal of Hydrology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127058· OSTI ID:1977302

Zhang, Lujun ^[1]; Kim, Taereem ^[2]; Yang, Tiantian ^[2]; Hong, Yang ^[2]; Zhu, Qian ^[3]

Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States); OSTI
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Southeast Univ., Nanjing (China)

The second phase of the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME-2) provides globally available Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasts with a daily resolution. The S2S precipitation forecasts are getting increasing attention for their potentials in providing hydrometeorological forcing information for water resources planning at an extended range. However, the forecast skills of many existing S2S forecast products will significantly decrease when the lead time increases, hindering their applicability for watershed-scale hydrologic modeling. Therefore, forecast validation and large-scale evaluation are of great importance for water resources planning and hydrological applications. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the S2S precipitation forecasts from the NMME-2 dataset over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and during the study period from 1982 to 2011. Three aspects of precipitation forecast capabilities are compared and analyzed: bias, skill scores, and the ability to predict extreme precipitation events. The Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) is used as ground truth reference. Differs from other regional forecast validation study, we further examined and analyzed the dependences of NMME-2 precipitation forecast skills according to different seasonality, geographical locations, and lead times. Results show that the forecast biases are not sensitive to lead times but are seasonally dependent of all NMME-2 models. Overestimations are found in the Western U.S. in cooler seasons while underestimations are observed in the central regions of the U.S. in warmer seasons. The forecast skill of all individual NMME-2 models generally decreases as increases of lead times. The simple model averaging (SMA) of five NMME-2 models demonstrates a higher forecast skill than any individual NMME-2 models. Spatially, the highest forecast skill scores are observed at coastal areas in the Western U.S. with an one-week lead time. As compared to the historical resampled forecasts, NMME-2 also shows better performance in predicting extreme precipitation events above 99% percentiles and below 1% percentiles with higher probability of detections and lower false alarm ratios. Finally, the obtained results suggest the great potentials of NMME-2 precipitation forecasts in assisting ensemble hydrologic forecasts at the S2S scale over the CONUS.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China; USDOE; USDOE Office of International Affairs (IA)

Grant/Contract Number:: IA0000018

OSTI ID:: 1977302

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1862562

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology Journal Issue: PB Vol. 603; ISSN 0022-1694

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

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