The use of Monte Carlo analysis for exposure assessment of an estuarine food web
Conference
·
OSTI ID:197568
- McLaren/Hart Environmental Engineering Corp., Portland, ME (United States). ChemRisk Div.
Despite apparent agreement within the scientific community that probabilistic methods of analysis offer substantially more informative exposure predictions than those offered by the traditional point estimate approach, few risk assessments conducted or approved by state and federal regulatory agencies have used probabilistic methods. Among the likely deterrents to application of probabilistic methods to ecological risk assessment is the absence of ``standard`` data distributions that are considered applicable to most conditions for a given ecological receptor. Indeed, point estimates of ecological exposure factor values for a limited number of wildlife receptors have only recently been published. The Monte Carlo method of probabilistic modeling has received increasing support as a promising technique for characterizing uncertainty and variation in estimates of exposure to environmental contaminants. An evaluation of literature on the behavior, physiology, and ecology of estuarine organisms was conducted in order to identify those variables that most strongly influence uptake of xenobiotic chemicals from sediments, water and food sources. The ranges, central tendencies, and distributions of several key parameter values for polychaetes (Nereis sp.), mummichog (Fundulus heteroclitus), blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), and striped bass (Morone saxatilis) in east coast estuaries were identified. Understanding the variation in such factors, which include feeding rate, growth rate, feeding range, excretion rate, respiration rate, body weight, lipid content, food assimilation efficiency, and chemical assimilation efficiency, is critical to the understanding the mechanisms that control the uptake of xenobiotic chemicals in aquatic organisms, and to the ability to estimate bioaccumulation from chemical exposures in the aquatic environment.
- OSTI ID:
- 197568
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9511137--; ISBN 1-880611-03-1
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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