Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event

Haqiqi, Iman; Grogan, Danielle S.; Horeh, Marziyeh Bahalou; Liu, Jing; Baldos, Uris C.; Lammers, Richard; Hertel, Thomas W.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe3

Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event

Journal Article · Fri Feb 24 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe3· OSTI ID:1973759

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[3]; ^[3]; ^[2]; ^[3]

Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Penn State
Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Inspector General (IG); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016162

OSTI ID:: 1973759

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 18; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (53)

Global Change and the Food System in 2050 Hertel, Thomas W.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C. Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22662-0_11	book	January 2016
The role of international trade in managing food security risks from climate change Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. Food Security, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0435-z	journal	March 2015
COVID-19 pandemic and its positive impacts on environment: an updated review Khan, I.; Shah, D.; Shah, S. S. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-03021-3	journal	November 2020
Assessment of COVID-19 impacts on U.S. counties using the immediate impact model of local agricultural production (IMLAP) Haqiqi, Iman; Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh Agricultural Systems, Vol. 190 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103132	journal	May 2021
Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions Smith, L. Vanessa; Tarui, Nori; Yamagata, Takashi Energy Economics, Vol. 97 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105170	journal	May 2021
SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability Baldos, U. L. C.; Haqiqi, I.; Hertel, T. W. Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 133 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104805	journal	November 2020
The U.S. drought of 2012 in perspective: A call to action Boyer, J. S.; Byrne, P.; Cassman, K. G. Global Food Security, Vol. 2, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2013.08.002	journal	September 2013
Debunking the ‘new normal’: Why world food prices are expected to resume their long run downward trend Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. Global Food Security, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2016.03.002	journal	March 2016
International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Taheripour, Farzad Global Environmental Change, Vol. 29 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.07.010	journal	November 2014
Attaining food and environmental security in an era of globalization Hertel, Thomas W.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 41 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.006	journal	November 2016
The impact of COVID 19 on air pollution levels and other environmental indicators - A case study of Egypt Mostafa, Mohamed K.; Gamal, Gamil; Wafiq, A. Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 277 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111496	journal	January 2021
Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation Siebert, Stefan; Döll, Petra Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 384, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.031	journal	April 2010
Compound natural and human disasters: Managing drought and COVID-19 to sustain global agriculture and food sectors Mishra, Ashok; Bruno, Ellen; Zilberman, David Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 754 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142210	journal	February 2021
Impact of COVID-19 on greenhouse gases emissions: A critical review Kumar, Abhinandan; Singh, Pardeep; Raizada, Pankaj Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 806 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150349	journal	February 2022
Global modeling of irrigation water requirements: GLOBAL MODELING OF IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS Döll, Petra; Siebert, Stefan Water Resources Research, Vol. 38, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000355	journal	April 2002
Global irrigation water demand: Variability and uncertainties arising from agricultural and climate data sets Wisser, Dominik; Frolking, Steve; Douglas, Ellen M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL035296	journal	January 2008
Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability Ray, Deepak K.; Gerber, James S.; MacDonald, Graham K. Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6989	journal	January 2015
Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok K.; Wada, Yoshihide Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w	journal	June 2020
Author Correction: Near-real-time monitoring of global CO2 emissions reveals the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic Liu, Zhu; Ciais, Philippe; Deng, Zhu Nature Communications, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20254-5	journal	December 2020
Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions Mora, Camilo; Spirandelli, Daniele; Franklin, Erik C. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6	journal	November 2018
Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change Pokhrel, Yadu; Felfelani, Farshid; Satoh, Yusuke Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w	journal	January 2021
Global gridded crop harvested area, production, yield, and monthly physical area data circa 2015 Grogan, Danielle; Frolking, Steve; Wisser, Dominik Scientific Data, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01115-2	journal	January 2022
The COVID-19 lockdowns: a window into the Earth System Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Field, Christopher B.; Appel, Eric A. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol. 1, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0079-1	journal	July 2020
The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture Morton, J. F. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 50 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0701855104	journal	December 2007
Mapping the effects of drought on child stunting Cooper, Matthew W.; Brown, Molly E.; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, Issue 35 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1905228116	journal	August 2019
When the virtual water runs out: local and global responses to addressing unsustainable groundwater consumption Haqiqi, Iman; Perry, Chris J.; Hertel, Thomas W. Water International, Vol. 47, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2023.2131272	journal	October 2022
Towards a post-pandemic policy framework to manage climate-related financial risks and resilience D’Orazio, Paola Climate Policy, Vol. 21, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1975623	journal	September 2021
A remarkable review of the effect of lockdowns during COVID-19 pandemic on global PM emissions Le, Van Vang; Huynh, Thanh Tung; Ölçer, Aykut Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2020.1853854	journal	December 2020
Invisible water, visible impact: groundwater use and Indian agriculture under climate change Zaveri, Esha; Grogan, Danielle S.; Fisher-Vanden, Karen Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084005	journal	August 2016
Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/015012	journal	February 2013
Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034024	journal	August 2013
The use and re-use of unsustainable groundwater for irrigation: a global budget Grogan, Danielle S.; Wisser, Dominik; Prusevich, Alex Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5fb2	journal	March 2017
Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use Liu, Jing; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lammers, Richard B. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa88db	journal	October 2017
Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5 °C climate goal Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Rogelj, Joeri Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad0f7	journal	July 2018
A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models Hertel, Thomas W.; West, Thales A. P.; Börner, Jan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d33	journal	May 2019
Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change de Lima, Cicero Z.; Buzan, Jonathan R.; Moore, Frances C. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abeb9f	journal	March 2021
Labor markets: A critical link between global-local shocks and their impact on agriculture Ray, Srabashi; Haqiqi, Iman; Hill, Alexandra E. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb1c9	journal	March 2023
Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 58, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12048	journal	March 2014
The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050 Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Fuglie, Keith O.; Hertel, Thomas W. Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12550	journal	February 2020
Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis Laborde, David; Martin, Will; Vos, Rob Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12624	journal	April 2021
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E. Science, Vol. 341, Issue 6151 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1235367	journal	August 2013
Global Patterns of Crop Production Losses Associated with Droughts from 1983 to 2009 Kim, Wonsik; Iizumi, Toshichika; Nishimori, Motoki Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 58, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0174.1	journal	June 2019
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Gelaro, Ronald; McCarty, Will; Suárez, Max J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0758.1	journal	July 2017
Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria Gleick, Peter H. Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1	journal	July 2014
High‐resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river‐flow management Lehner, Bernhard; Liermann, Catherine Reidy; Revenga, Carmen Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/100125	journal	May 2011
Introducing Irrigation Water into GTAP Data Base Version 9 Haqiqi, Iman; Taheripour, Farzad; Liu, Jing Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.010203AF	journal	December 2016
The GTAP Data Base: Version 10 Aguiar, Angel; Chepeliev, Maksym; Corong, Erwin L. Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.040101AF	journal	June 2019
GTAP- Power Database: Version 10 Chepeliev, Maksym Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050203AF	journal	December 2020
Global Action on SDGs: Policy Review and Outlook in a Post-Pandemic Era Cheng, Yi; Liu, Haimeng; Wang, Shaobin Sustainability, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/su13116461	journal	June 2021
Water balance model (WBM) v.1.0.0: a scalable gridded global hydrologic model with water-tracking functionality Grogan, Danielle S.; Zuidema, Shan; Prusevich, Alex Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 15, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7287-2022	journal	October 2022
Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H) Wisser, D.; Fekete, B. M.; Vörösmarty, C. J. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1-2010	journal	January 2010
Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA Zuidema, Shan; Grogan, Danielle; Prusevich, Alexander Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 24, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5231-2020	journal	January 2020
Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture Haqiqi, Iman; Grogan, Danielle S.; Hertel, Thomas W. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 25, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-551-2021	journal	January 2021

Similar Records

Achieving sustainable irrigation water withdrawals: global impacts on food security and land use

Journal Article · Sun Oct 08 20:00:00 EDT 2017 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:1781802

Quantifying the impacts of compound extremes on agriculture

Journal Article · Tue Feb 02 19:00:00 EST 2021 · Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online) · OSTI ID:1781670

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
GHG emissions
Global-Local-Global Analysis
adaptation
compound extremes
food security
trade

Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event

Citation Formats

References (53)

Similar Records

Related Subjects