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Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Journal Article · · The Seismic Record
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1785/0320220020· OSTI ID:1972030
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Stanford University
  2. Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (Mw ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.
Research Organization:
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0020445
OSTI ID:
1972030
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2267583
Journal Information:
The Seismic Record, Journal Name: The Seismic Record Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 2; ISSN 2694-4006
Publisher:
Seismological Society of AmericaCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Induced Earthquakes
Machine Learning
Seismicity