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Captured QBO‐MJO Connection in a Subseasonal Prediction System

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102648· OSTI ID:1971386
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences George Mason University Fairfax VA USA
  2. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  3. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences George Mason University Fairfax VA USA, School of Meteorology University of Oklahoma Norman OK USA
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Abstract

The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) impacts the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity with a stronger MJO in QBO easterly (QBOE) than QBO westerly (QBOW) winters. However, this relationship is poorly represented in the current generation climate models. For the first time, this paper applies a stratospheric zonal‐mean nudging in a subseasonal prediction system to capture it. Two strong MJO cases in a QBO‐neutral winter are investigated. The QBO temperature and zonal wind anomalies are added separately as well as together to the stratosphere using nudging in MJO case hindcast. Only by nudging the QBO temperature anomalies while leaving the zonal wind free, can the prediction system capture the observed QBO‐MJO connection. The tropopause instability is found positively correlated to the MJO amplitude, but it cannot fully explain the captured connection. The free‐evolving zonal wind anomalies in the stratosphere due to the nudged QBO temperature are crucial for the captured connection.

Research Organization:
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0019433; SC0022070
OSTI ID:
1971386
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2417633
OSTI ID: 1971388
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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