Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China

Conference · Sat Apr 01 04:00:00 EDT 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.4271/2023-01-0883· OSTI ID:1969835

Saafi, Mohamed Ali ^[1]; Ou, Shawn ^[2]; He, Xin ^[3]

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1. Aramco Research Center
2. ORNL
3. Aramco Services Company

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H2) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H2 internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H2 price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H2 vehicle technologies.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1969835
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English