A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Villa, Daniel L.; Schostek, Tyler; Govertsen, Krissy; Macmillan, Madeline

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105663

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

Journal Article · Mon Mar 06 23:00:00 EST 2023 · Environmental Modelling and Software

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105663· OSTI ID:1968248

^[1]; Schostek, Tyler ^[2]; Govertsen, Krissy ^[3]; Macmillan, Madeline ^[4]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)

Applying extreme temperature events for future conditions is not straightforward for infrastructure resilience analyses. This work introduces a stochastic model that fills this gap. The model uses at least 50 years of daily extreme temperature records, climate normals with 10%-90% confidence intervals, and shifts/offsets for increased frequency and intensity of heat wave events. Intensity and frequency are shifted based on surface temperature anomaly from 1850-1900 for 32 models from CMIP6. A case study for Worcester, Massachusetts passed 85% of cases using the two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov -value test with 95% confidence for both temperature and duration. Future shifts for several climate scenarios to 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 had acceptable errors between the shifted model and 10- and 50-year extreme temperature event thresholds with the largest error being 2.67 degrees C. The model is likely to be flexible enough for other patterns of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation and hurricanes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308; NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 1968248

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2311665

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--6A20-85212; SAND--2023-00959J; MainId:85985; UUID:baaea85f-506d-4276-a24d-2c7776e6cf5d; MainAdminID:69171

Journal Information:: Environmental Modelling and Software, Journal Name: Environmental Modelling and Software Vol. 163; ISSN 1364-8152

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Building energy modeling
Climate change
Duration and intensity
Extreme temperatures
Heat waves
Infrastructure
Resilience Stochastic models
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Stochastic modeling

A stochastic model of future extreme temperature events for infrastructure analysis

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