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Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099770· OSTI ID:1961386
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [1]
  1. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
  2. Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
  3. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  4. Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
  5. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Washington, DC (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.
Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
1961386
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-85533; MainId:86306; UUID:a24e380a-b16d-410b-8b54-4c6fc03b085b; MainAdminID:69005
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 23 Vol. 49; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
ENSO
El Nino/Southern Oscillation
southwest United States
teleconnections