Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Journal Article · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2023 · CIGRE Science & Engineering

OSTI ID:1961373

Stenclik, Derek; Stephen, Gord; Cole, Wesley; Tuohy, Aidan; Bloom, Aaron; Figueroa Acevedo, Armando

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

• Research Organization: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Strategic Programs (EE-SP)
• DOE Contract Number: AC36-08GO28308
• OSTI ID: 1961373
• Report Number(s): NREL/JA-6A40-81639; MainId:82412; UUID:9097803b-3b83-4508-a59b-de96cb53681d; MainAdminID:68985
• Journal Information: CIGRE Science & Engineering, Journal Name: CIGRE Science & Engineering Vol. 27
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
loss of load expectation
probabilistic analysis
reliability
resource adequacy