Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Qiu, Han; Hao, Dalei; Zeng, Yelu; Zhang, Xuesong; Chen, Min

doi:10.5194/esd-14-1-2023

Global and northern-high-latitude net ecosystem production in the 21st century from CMIP6 experiments

Journal Article · Mon Jan 09 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Earth System Dynamics (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1-2023· OSTI ID:1958770

^[1]; ^[2]; Zeng, Yelu ^[3]; ^[4]; Chen, Min ^[3]

Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Beltsville, MD (United States). ARS-Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab.

Climate warming is accelerating the changes in the global terrestrial ecosystems and particularly those in the northern high latitudes (NHLs; poleward of 50° N) and rendering the land–atmosphere carbon exchange highly uncertain. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) employs the most updated climate models to estimate terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics driven by a new set of socioeconomic and climate change pathways. By analyzing the future (2015–2100) carbon fluxes estimated by 10 CMIP6 models, we quantitatively evaluated the projected magnitudes, trends, and uncertainties in the global and NHL carbon fluxes under four scenarios plus the role of NHLs in the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics. Overall, the models suggest that the global and NHL terrestrial ecosystems will be consistent carbon sinks in the future, and the magnitude of the carbon sinks is projected to be larger under scenarios with higher radiative forcing. By the end of this century, the models on average estimate the NHL net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as 0.54 ± 0.77, 1.01 ± 0.98, 0.97 ± 1.62, and 1.05 ± 1.83 Pg C yr^–1 under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. The uncertainties are not substantially reduced compared with earlier results, e.g., the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). Although NHLs contribute a small fraction of the global carbon sink (~13 %), the relative uncertainties in NHL NEP are much larger than the global level. Our results provide insights into future carbon flux evolutions under future scenarios and highlight the urgent need to constrain the large uncertainties associated with model projections for making better climate mitigation strategies.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1958770

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-178794

Journal Information:: Earth System Dynamics (Online), Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2190-4987

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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