Blowout risk modeling

Conference · Sun Dec 31 04:00:00 EST 1995

OSTI ID:194669

Rosenberg, T H; Nielsen, T E ^[1]

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1. Scandpower A/S, Kjeller (Norway). Safety and Reliability Services

An uncontrolled well blowout is one of the major contributors (40--60%) to the overall risk picture in connection with offshore operations. The increasing focus on risk within the oil companies, authorities and public in general has resulted in greater attention to the validity of the risk assessments. It is therefore essential that the estimated risk reflects the actual activity to the greatest extent possible. A joint industry project was established to develop a blowout risk prediction model to reflect the development within drilling practice in the North Sea over the last 10 years in combination with the statistical figures applied in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This paper will describe one method developed to combine the practical operational experience with the quantitative statistical records. An extensive screening of blowout records from data bases and interview session with oil companies operating departments have been performed. The blowout risk model was developed to enable the risk analyst to adjust a default blowout frequency to reflect a specific well operation. The adjustment cover the development related to equipment, operational procedures, management and frame conditions. The model has been applied successfully to a number of wells and the paper will present the principle behind the model as well as the practical approach in using the model.

• OSTI ID: 194669
• Report Number(s): CONF-950695--; ISBN 0-7918-1308-8
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
03 NATURAL GAS
BLOWOUTS
CALCULATION METHODS
DATA BASE MANAGEMENT
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATURAL GAS WELLS
OIL WELLS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
RISK ASSESSMENT