Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Li, Hui; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Lee, Chia‐Ying; Kim, Hyemi

doi:10.1029/2022jd036986

Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Journal Article · Wed Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036986· OSTI ID:1908344

^[1]; ^[2]; Lee, Chia‐Ying ^[3]; ^[4]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070

OSTI ID:: 1908344

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres Journal Issue: 22 Vol. 127; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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