Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Li, Hui; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Lee, Chia‐Ying; Kim, Hyemi

doi:10.1029/2022jd036986

Title: Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Journal Article · Wed Nov 16 00:00:00 EST 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036986· OSTI ID:1908344

^[1];

^[1]; Lee, Chia‐Ying ^[2];

^[3]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

Subseasonal tropical cyclone (TC) reforecasts from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CAM6) subseasonal prediction system are examined in this study. Here, we evaluate the modeled TC climatology and the probabilistic forecast skill of basin-wide TC genesis at weekly temporal resolution. Prediction skill is calculated using the Brier skill score relative to a constant annual mean climatology and to a monthly varying seasonal climatology during TC season. The model captures the observed basin-wide climatological TC seasonality and spatial distributions at weeks 1–6, but TC genesis is largely underestimated from Week 2 onward. For some basins and lead times, the predicted TC genesis is primarily controlled by the number of TC “seeds” and the mean-state climate condition. The model has good prediction skill relative to the constant climatology across all the basins and lead times, but is only skillful in the eastern Pacific, North Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere at Week 1 when compared to the seasonal climatology, indicating limited skill in predicting deviations from the seasonal cycle. We find strong modulations of the predicted TC genesis at up to 3 weeks of forecast lead time by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The interannual variability of predicted TC genesis and accumulated cyclone energy are skillfully predicted in the North Atlantic and the Northwestern Pacific, with a strong modulation by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022070; 1947282; 1852977; AGS-1652289; 80NSSC21K1525; KMI2021-01210

OSTI ID:: 1908344

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 127, Issue 22; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (63)

The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database Vitart, F.; Ardilouze, C.; Bonet, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1	journal	January 2017
The CCSM4 Ocean Component Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bates, Susan C.; Briegleb, Bruce P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1	journal	March 2012
High-Resolution Climate Simulations Using GFDL HiRAM with a Stretched Global Grid Harris, Lucas M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Tu, ChiaYing Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0389.1	journal	June 2016
Impact of the Madden Julian Oscillation on tropical storms and risk of landfall in the ECMWF forecast system: MJO COMPOSITES OF MODEL TROPICAL STORMS Vitart, F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039089	journal	August 2009
Variations in global tropical cyclone activity and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation since the midtwentieth century Klotzbach, Philip J.; Oliver, Eric C. J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063966	journal	May 2015
Subseasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere Using a Dynamical Multimodel Ensemble Gregory, Paul; Vitart, Frederic; Rivett, Rabi Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0050.1	journal	October 2020
Tropical Cyclone Simulation and Response to CO ₂ Doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 High-Resolution Coupled Climate Model Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Knutson, Thomas R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00475.1	journal	November 2014
Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden–Julian Oscillation Maloney, Eric D.; Hartmann, Dennis L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1451:MOENPH>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 2000
Sensitivity of climate simulations to the parameterization of cumulus convection in the Canadian climate centre general circulation model Zhang, G. J.; McFarlane, Norman A. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 33, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.1995.9649539	journal	September 1995
Climate Assessment for 1999 Bell, Gerald D.; Halpert, Michael S.; Schnell, Russell C. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)81[s1:caf]2.0.co;2	journal	June 2000
Statistical Prediction of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere Leroy, Anne; Wheeler, Matthew C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2426.1	journal	October 2008
Characteristics of Model Tropical Cyclone Climatology and the Large-Scale Environment Camargo, Suzana J.; Giulivi, Claudia F.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0500.1	journal	June 2020
Improving and Promoting Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Robertson, Andrew W.; Kumar, Arun; Peña, Malaquias Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00139.1	journal	March 2015
Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Genesis Prediction and MJO in the S2S Dataset Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vitart, Fréderic Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 33, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0165.1	journal	July 2018
African Easterly Wave Variability and Its Relationship to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Thorncroft, Chris; Hodges, Kevin Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1166:AEWVAI>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 2001
Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two‐way Nesting Gao, Kun; Chen, Jan‐Huey; Harris, Lucas Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083526	journal	August 2019
The Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Impacts on Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Activity Klotzbach, Philip J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00483.1	journal	March 2014
Modulation of South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones by the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves Bessafi, Miloud; Wheeler, Matthew C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3087.1	journal	February 2006
Diagnosis of the MJO Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using an Empirical Index Camargo, Suzana J.; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 66, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3101.1	journal	October 2009
Tropical Cyclone Prediction on Subseasonal Time-Scales Camargo, Suzana J.; Camp, Joanne; Elsberry, Russell L. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.004	journal	September 2019
Flow-dependent versus flow-independent initial perturbations for ensemble prediction Magnusson, Linus; Nycander, Jonas; Källén, Erland Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 61, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00385.x	journal	January 2009
JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do) Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Urakawa, Shogo; Nakano, Hideyuki Ocean Modelling, Vol. 130 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.002	journal	October 2018
Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Three-Way Interaction between an African Easterly Wave, Diurnally Varying Convection, and a Convectively Coupled Atmospheric Kelvin Wave Ventrice, Michael J.; Thorncroft, Christopher D.; Janiga, Matthew A. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 140, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-11-00122.1	journal	April 2012
Future Changes in the Global Frequency of Tropical Cyclone Seeds Sugi, Masato; Yamada, Yohei; Yoshida, Kohei SOLA, Vol. 16, Issue 0 https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2020-012	journal	January 2020
A PDF-Based Model for Boundary Layer Clouds. Part I: Method and Model Description Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Larson, Vincent E.; Cotton, William R. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 59, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<3540:apbmfb>2.0.co;2	journal	December 2002
Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century Emanuel, K. A. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 110, Issue 30 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1301293110	journal	July 2013
The Probability Anomaly Correlation and Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts van den Dool, Huug; Becker, Emily; Chen, Li-Chuan Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0115.1	journal	January 2017
An Intraseasonal Prediction Model of Atlantic and East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Henderson, Stephanie A.; Maloney, Eric D. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00268.1	journal	June 2013
Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability Bister, Marja Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue D24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001jd000776	journal	January 2002
Description and evaluation of a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) within version 5.3 of the Community Atmosphere Model Liu, X.; Ma, P. -L.; Wang, H. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016	journal	January 2016
A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis Tippett, Michael K.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1	journal	May 2011
Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) Reforecast Version 2 Li, Weiwei; Wang, Zhuo; Peng, Melinda S. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 31, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0176.1	journal	June 2016
Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions White, Christopher J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Acharya, Nachiketa Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 103, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1	journal	June 2022
Contribution of Tropical Waves to the Formation of Supertyphoon Megi (2010) Fang, Juan; Zhang, Fuqing Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 73, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-15-0179.1	journal	October 2016
A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models Li, Hongyi; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Wu, Huan Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/Jhm-D-12-015.1	journal	June 2013
Modulation of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) from 1905 to 2011 Klotzbach, Philip J.; Oliver, Eric C. J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00509.1	journal	December 2014
pyPI (v1.3): Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity Calculations in Python Gilford, Daniel M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 14, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2351-2021	journal	May 2021
TempestExtremes v2.1: a community framework for feature detection, tracking, and analysis in large datasets Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; McClenny, Elizabeth E. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5023-2021	journal	January 2021
Objectively Determined Resolution-Dependent Threshold Criteria for the Detection of Tropical Cyclones in Climate Models and Reanalyses Walsh, K. J. E.; Fiorino, M.; Landsea, C. W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4074.1	journal	May 2007
Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.373	journal	November 2015
Tropical Cyclone Seeds, Transition Probabilities, and Genesis Emanuel, Kerry Journal of Climate, Vol. 35, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0922.1	journal	June 2022
Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Global Survey Schreck, Carl J. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 143, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0111.1	journal	October 2015
Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format Landsea, Christopher W.; Franklin, James L. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00254.1	journal	October 2013
Skilful multiweek tropical cyclone prediction in ACCESS‐S1 and the role of the MJO Camp, Joanne; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Hendon, Harry H. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 144, Issue 714 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3260	journal	July 2018
Barotropic Aspects of ITCZ Breakdown Ferreira, Rosana Nieto; Schubert, Wayne H. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 54, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<0261:BAOIB>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 1997
Subseasonal Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence and ACE in the S2S Dataset Lee, Chia-Ying; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vitart, Fréderic Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0217.1	journal	April 2020
Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models Hsieh, Tsung-Lin; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Wenchang Climate Dynamics, Vol. 55, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05446-5	journal	September 2020
Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2 Richter, Jadwiga H.; Glanville, Anne A.; Edwards, James Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 37, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0163.1	journal	June 2022
Advanced Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics for Global Models. Part I: Off-Line Tests and Comparison with Other Schemes Gettelman, A.; Morrison, H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00102.1	journal	February 2015
Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather to Climate with Application to Tropical Cyclones Robertson, Andrew W.; Vitart, Frederic; Camargo, Suzana J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 125, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029375	journal	March 2020
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1 Richter, Jadwiga H.; Pegion, Kathy; Sun, Lantao Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0029.1	journal	December 2020
Skill, Predictability, and Cluster Analysis of Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the ECMWF Monthly Forecasts Camargo, Suzana J.; Vitart, Frédéric; Lee, Chia-Ying Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 149, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0075.1	journal	November 2021
Assessing sensitivities in algorithmic detection of tropical cyclones in climate data: SENSITIVITIES IN ALGORITHMIC TC TRACKING Zarzycki, Colin M.; Ullrich, Paul A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071606	journal	January 2017
Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Murakami, Hiroyuki Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04913-y	journal	August 2019
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J. ‐F.; Bacmeister, J. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916	journal	February 2020
The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty Lawrence, David M.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Koven, Charles D. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583	journal	December 2019
Variation of tropical cyclone activity in the South Indian Ocean: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation effects Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Joo-Hong; Jeong, Jee-Hoon Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D22 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007289	journal	January 2006
A long-term record of blended satellite and in situ sea-surface temperature for climate monitoring, modeling and environmental studies Banzon, Viva; Smith, Thomas M.; Chin, Toshio Mike Earth System Science Data, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-165-2016	journal	January 2016
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics Kobayashi, Shinya; Ota, Yukinari; Harada, Yayoi Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 93, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2015-001	journal	January 2015
Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0098.1	journal	September 2016
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Wu, Xingren Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1	journal	March 2014
Resolution dependence of tropical cyclone formation in CMIP3 and finer resolution models Walsh, Kevin; Lavender, Sally; Scoccimarro, Enrico Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1298-z	journal	February 2012
A Comparison of Dynamical and Statistical Predictions of Weekly Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere Vitart, Frédéric; Leroy, Anne; Wheeler, Matthew C. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3343.1	journal	September 2010

Similar Records

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by S2S and NMME Models

Journal Article · Wed Nov 27 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · OSTI ID:1908344

Zheng, Cheng; Chang, Edmund Kar‐Man; Kim, Hyemi; +2 more

Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2

Journal Article · Mon Mar 04 00:00:00 EST 2024 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · OSTI ID:1908344

Richter, Jadwiga H.; Glanville, Anne A.; King, Teagan; +11 more

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Weather and Forecasting · OSTI ID:1908344

Richter, Jadwiga H.; Glanville, Anne A.; Edwards, James; +12 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
tropical cyclone
earth system prediction
subseasonal prediction

Title: Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Modulations by MJO and ENSO in CESM2

Citation Formats

References (63)

Similar Records

Related Subjects