Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Feng, Yanlei; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Romps, David M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Journal Article · Fri Jan 06 04:00:00 EST 2023 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1· OSTI ID:1908022

; Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Romps, David M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.

Abstract

Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NONE; AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1908022

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1972185

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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