Land‐based climate solutions for the United States

Robertson, G. Philip; Hamilton, Stephen K.; Paustian, Keith; Smith, Pete

doi:10.1111/gcb.16267

Land‐based climate solutions for the United States

Journal Article · Tue May 31 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Global Change Biology

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16267· OSTI ID:1871757

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W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA, Department of Plant, Soil, and Microbial Sciences Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA, Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA
W.K. Kellogg Biological Station Michigan State University Hickory Corners Michigan USA, Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA, Department of Integrative Biology Michigan State University East Lansing Michigan USA, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Millbrook New York USA
Department of Soil and Crop Sciences and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK

Abstract

Meeting end‐of‐century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature‐based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature‐based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the United States that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non‐forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid‐century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature‐based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom‐up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost‐effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of forest management. Results show a conservative end‐of‐century mitigation capacity of 110 (57–178) Gt CO ₂ e for the U.S., ~50% higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature‐based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties, but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AR0000826; SC0018409

OSTI ID:: 1871757

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1871759
OSTI ID: 1904824

Journal Information:: Global Change Biology, Journal Name: Global Change Biology Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 28; ISSN 1354-1013

Publisher:: Wiley-BlackwellCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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